I reconnected with a friend from college
last weekend who happens to be a classically trained concert pianist, and over the course of the conversation he mentioned that he loves country music.
I’m not one to judge people for their musical selections, but this guy plays some of the most beautiful music ever composed and he’s telling me he loves country. What gives?
His response was simple: He likes country music because the lyrics “express the human condition in the most honest and basic way.” After thinking that over for a second, I realized he was probably right.
Some of you may remember the country song, “I’ve Been Down So Long (It Looks Like Up To Me)” by Lee Hazelwood and Nancy Sinatra. That title speaks volumes about the data in the latest economic survey from the National Association of Manufacturers.
Responses indicate that manufacturer confidence in the second quarter was up more than 35% from ’08 and ’09 levels. This data was reported in the same newsletter that cited fears over the tax and regulatory environment, a decrease in consumer confidence, stalled consumer and housing spending, difficulty attracting and retaining a qualified workforce, slowing growth, and anxieties about the global economic outlook.
So, again, how is it that manufacturers are more optimistic? The only explanation is we’ve become so accustomed to bad news that any uptick, like a two-year transportation bill or modest growth, is cause for optimism – and that’s probably a good thing. A negative outlook won’t get anyone very far.
In the song, Nancy Sinatra sings “I put my finger in his mind’s eye, and I’ve given him a reason now to cry. I put his song of life in the wrong key,” and Lee Hazelwood responds, “I’ve been down so long it looks like up to me.”
The precast concrete industry is kind of like Lee Hazelwood here. We’ve been down for a long time, so virtually anything can look like “up.” The good thing is we haven’t given up and we haven’t lost sight of that glimmer of light at the end of this long, dark tunnel.
We must remain lean and efficient, diversify to meet new and unmet needs, take care of employees through training and teaching, understand costs, add value to our products and get close to customers. These principles are the keys to success and they can only happen if we continue to be optimistic.
I’m curious to know, if you had to rate your confidence level right now, what would it be? Very positive, somewhat positive, somewhat negative or very negative? Comment below and let us know what looks like “up” to you.
Ty Gable,
President, National Precast Concrete Association
Somewhat positive!!
This year is definitely up over the last couple years. Regardless of the uptick, I am still skeptical and cautious considering the growth of our governments power and its debts. I am concerned about 2012. Regardless of who gets elected, somehow we are going to have to pay the piper.
Ty – There are a lot of similarities between the great depression and now. They both started with a crash in the financial sector. Both periods of time were marked by massive government expansion. Both Presidents liked to bypass congress to grow their power. Both recoveries were painfully slow. If you look at the below numbers, the US GDP did not get back to pre-depression numbers for over 10 years. The difference between that depression and today’s is that the federal reserve contracted the monetary supply during the first depressiong and during our current depression they massively expanded it. Subtract the inflation and stimullus programs from the 1 – 2% GDP growth numbers and you will see that our economy is actually contracting.
On a positive note, I think that this downturn has thinned out the heard of the precast industry and made it leaner. It has also forced a lot of precasters to diversify into additional product lines. In the long term, the industry will be stronger and will grow its market share becuase precast is a more efficient, better quality product than most other construction methods.
GDP by year (in billions)
1929 – $103.6
1930 – $91.2
1931 – $76.5
1932 – $58.7
1933 – $56.4
1934 – $66.0
1935 – $73.3
1936 – $83.8 (election year)
1937 – $91.9
1938 – $86.1
1939 – $92.2
I am very positive for the next 12 months. Luckily I have positioned our company in a market that continues to be stable and is growing. Health care issues don’t bother me because I have been providing health care for employees long before it was required, I did it because it was the right thing to do. I was also plant certified before it was required, so when a customer complains that we are a bit more expensive, I shrug and try to explain why, but I can sleep at night. What does concern me is the total disfunction in our legislature both at our state and Federal level. Common sense and sound decisions have fallen way to political gain, and the money spent on electing more politcians would solve so many of our daily problems…….don’t get me started I have a business to run!
“Up” has much to do with perspective too. After hearing Lee and Nancy’s song title in the form of a song (Been Down So Long by the Doors) for years — and never before hearing the Sinatra / Hazelwood tune — I was as flummoxed by the phrase as much as I have been the last 4 years in business. Your post has given not only a new perspective, but an epiphany. Funny how something you’ve been aware for years and years, all of a sudden, has new meaning. As the building industry collectively looks “up” — perhaps with the 20/20 hindsight that we all embodied the esteem to do so years go — we can continue this path as we “emancipate (y)ourselves from mental slavery”